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portfolio monitoring

4 insights

A waffle grid of 100 accounts with two marked, showing a 30-day-plus delinquency rate of 1.7 percent against a loss rate of 0.54 percent and small ticket losses of 0.72 percent.

Delinquencies Fell Sharply and Losses Edged Up in the Same Month. Both Are True.

Equipment finance delinquencies over 30 days sat at 1.7 percent in June while the loss rate rose to 0.54 percent. Losses lag the delinquency that produces them, which makes monitoring cadence a credit control rather than a reporting task.
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Three bullet bars showing builder confidence components against the neutral reading of 50: current sales conditions at 39, sales expectations at 43, and prospective buyer traffic at 23.

Housing Starts Fell 12.4 Percent. That Reaches a Lending Book Through Files That Look Unrelated.

July housing starts fell 12.4 percent on the month and 13.5 percent on the year, with builder confidence at 35 for a sixteenth straight month. Sector exposure arrives as many separate problems.
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A labelled diagram of four stages showing that a merchant cuts hours and delays orders before anything changes in receipts, that July retail and food services sales fell 0.6 percent against an expected rise, and that remittance performance is where a lender finally sees it.

The Signal You Repay From Is the Last One to Move

July retail sales fell 0.6 percent against an expected rise, and categories ranged from minus 2.2 to plus 1.9 in the same month. Receipts are both the slowest signal a lender has and the least specific.
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Two bullet bars showing that 59 percent of small business debt holders secured their debt with a personal guarantee against 51 percent using business assets, and that 88 percent of owners applied using personal credit history against 12 percent who used business credit only.

Fifty-Nine Percent of Small Business Debt Is Secured on a Household You Underwrite Once

Most small business debt is backed by a personal guarantee, which makes a household balance sheet the collateral. Merchants get monitored daily. Guarantors get looked at once, at origination.
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